Welcome!

@ThingsExpo Authors: Elizabeth White, Liz McMillan, Pat Romanski, William Schmarzo, Dean Madison

Related Topics: @ThingsExpo, @CloudExpo, @BigDataExpo

@ThingsExpo: Blog Feed Post

Understanding Chaos Theory | @ThingsExpo #DX #BI #IoT #M2M #Analytics

Chaos Theory is the branch of mathematics that deals with complex systems whose behavior is highly sensitive to slight changes

Why Understanding Chaos Theory Is Important to Your Business

“Chaos: When the present determines the future, but the approximate present does not approximately determine the future.”

– Edward Lorenz

We all probably remember the movie (“Jurassic Park”), even if we don’t remember this exact scene: Dr. Malcolm, played by Jeff Goldblum is explaining Chaos Theory to Dr. Ellie Sattler, played by Laura Dern.

Dr. Malcolm is explaining how random, seemingly negligible events can disrupt even the most carefully laid out plans.

Dr. Ian Malcolm: [after the T-Rex failed to appear for the tour group]. “You see a Tyrannosaur doesn’t follow a set pattern or park schedules, the essence of chaos.”

And then later in the movie…

Dr. Ian Malcolm: “Oh, yeah. Oooh, ahhh, that’s how it always starts. Then later there’s running and um, screaming.”

Yes, running and screaming. That’s what happens when even the most carefully developed plans eventually succumb to the compounding of all these “random, seemingly negligible” events. And understanding the ramifications of Chaos Theory is becoming even more relevant as we look to machines to take over increasingly complex tasks.

What Is Chaos Theory?
Chaos Theory
is the branch of mathematics that deals with complex systems whose behavior is highly sensitive to slight changes in conditions, so that small alterations can give rise to unintended consequences. Chaos Theory is the science of surprises, and not always pleasant surprises. While traditional science deals with predictable phenomena like gravity, electricity, or chemical reactions, Chaos Theory deals with nonlinear things that are mostly impossible to predict, calculate, or control, like turbulence, a bar brawl, the stock market futures, debris flying out of the bed of a truck, or a child darting onto the street[1].

There are several underlying principles of Chaos Theory, including:

  • Butterfly Effect: This is probably the most common principle; that a butterfly flapping its wings in one part of the world can eventually cause a hurricane in another part of the world. Here is a more realistic way to describe the Butterfly Effect: small changes in the initial conditions can lead to drastic changes in the results. Our lives are an ongoing demonstration of this principle.
  • Unpredictability: Because we can never know all the initial conditions of a complex system in sufficient detail, we cannot hope to predict the ultimate fate of a complex system. Even slight errors in measuring the initial state of a system could be amplified dramatically, rendering any prediction useless or even wrong.
  • Mixing: Turbulence describes how two adjacent points in a complex system could eventually end up in very different positions after time has elapsed. Examples: Two neighboring water molecules may end up in different parts of the ocean or even in different oceans. Or a group of helium balloons that launch together eventually landing in drastically different locations.
  • Feedback: Systems often become chaotic when there is feedback. A good example is the behavior of the stock market. As the value of a stock rises or falls, people are inclined to buy or sell that stock. This in turn further affects the price of the stock, causing chaotic, unpredictable stock price movements.

Chaos Theory Meets the Autonomous Car
Complex systems
(sometimes called complexity theory) are systems whose behavior is intrinsically difficult to model due to the dependencies, relationships, or interactions between their parts and its environment. Complex systems are impacted by factors such as non-linearity, emergence, spontaneous order, adaptation, and feedback loops. And while an autonomous car may not be the most complex system in the world, it is certainly more complex than playing checkers, chess or Grand Theft Auto.

So what happens when Complex Systems run into the world of Chaos Theory?

Complex or dynamical systems – that is, systems whose state evolves over time –display dynamics that are highly sensitive to initial conditions (butterfly effect). These sensitivities manifest themselves as an exponential growth of perturbations in the initial conditions over time. As a result, the behavior of these complex systems grows more and more random (unpredictable). This happens even though these systems are deterministic, meaning that their future dynamics are fully defined by their initial conditions[2].

Summary
So while we can’t avoid the impact of Chaos Theory, especially as we employ Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence to a growing body of complex systems and environments, here’s what we can do to mitigate the impact of Chaos Theory:

  • Build a plan for the continuous testing and refinement of the analytics. The performance of analytic models decay over time; they have a half-life because the world changes such as public sentiments driven by widening wealth gaps, corporate acts of malfeasance, government scandals, rising burden of student debt, growing ranks of the under-employed, wage stagnation, mounting populace divide on social media, legalization of marijuana, rising media sensationalism, climate change, terrorism, Cubs win the World Series, etc.

Figure 1: Half-life Calculation

Even apparently stable analytic models constantly need to be evaluated and fine-tuned.  Think of it as the “Data Scientist Life-time Employment Act!”  See the blog “2016 Presidential Election: Did Big Data Just Get Lazy” for more details on the analytics half-life effect.

  • Create a dashboard to monitor the performance of your analytic models. A dashboard is the perfect monitoring device to ensure that business managers and the data science team are proactively monitoring the performance and state of the analytic models.  Heck, maybe even integrate some data science into the dashboard to predict when a model is starting to fail (i.e., predictive maintenance).  See the blog “Big Data Dashboards” for some ideas about how to transform your “monitoring” dashboard into a “predictive” dashboard.
  • Understand the costs and liabilities associated with Type I and Type II errors and use those costs and liabilities to prioritize your investments in data acquisition, data quality, metadata enhancements and model tuning. See the blog “Understanding Type I and Type II Errors” for an approach for quantifying the costs and liabilities associated with Type I and Type II errors.

To borrow again from the movie “Jurassic Park”, don’t get caught with your pants down with respect to the potential ramifications of Chaos Theory on your complex analytic projects.

  1. http://fractalfoundation.org/resources/what-is-chaos-theory/
  2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dynamical_systems_theory#Chaos_theory

The post Why Understanding Chaos Theory Is Important To Your Business appeared first on InFocus Blog | Dell EMC Services.

Read the original blog entry...

More Stories By William Schmarzo

Bill Schmarzo, author of “Big Data: Understanding How Data Powers Big Business”, is responsible for setting the strategy and defining the Big Data service line offerings and capabilities for the EMC Global Services organization. As part of Bill’s CTO charter, he is responsible for working with organizations to help them identify where and how to start their big data journeys. He’s written several white papers, avid blogger and is a frequent speaker on the use of Big Data and advanced analytics to power organization’s key business initiatives. He also teaches the “Big Data MBA” at the University of San Francisco School of Management.

Bill has nearly three decades of experience in data warehousing, BI and analytics. Bill authored EMC’s Vision Workshop methodology that links an organization’s strategic business initiatives with their supporting data and analytic requirements, and co-authored with Ralph Kimball a series of articles on analytic applications. Bill has served on The Data Warehouse Institute’s faculty as the head of the analytic applications curriculum.

Previously, Bill was the Vice President of Advertiser Analytics at Yahoo and the Vice President of Analytic Applications at Business Objects.

@ThingsExpo Stories
SYS-CON Events announced today that SIGMA Corporation will exhibit at the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) Pavilion at SYS-CON's 21st International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. uLaser flow inspection device from the Japanese top share to Global Standard! Then, make the best use of data to flip to next page. For more information, visit http://www.sigma-k.co.jp/en/.
SYS-CON Events announced today that Yuasa System will exhibit at the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) Pavilion at SYS-CON's 21st International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Yuasa System is introducing a multi-purpose endurance testing system for flexible displays, OLED devices, flexible substrates, flat cables, and films in smartphones, wearables, automobiles, and healthcare.
Join IBM November 1 at 21st Cloud Expo at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA, and learn how IBM Watson can bring cognitive services and AI to intelligent, unmanned systems. Cognitive analysis impacts today’s systems with unparalleled ability that were previously available only to manned, back-end operations. Thanks to cloud processing, IBM Watson can bring cognitive services and AI to intelligent, unmanned systems. Imagine a robot vacuum that becomes your personal assistant th...
SYS-CON Events announced today that Taica will exhibit at the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) Pavilion at SYS-CON's 21st International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Taica manufacturers Alpha-GEL brand silicone components and materials, which maintain outstanding performance over a wide temperature range -40C to +200C. For more information, visit http://www.taica.co.jp/english/.
SYS-CON Events announced today that B2Cloud will exhibit at SYS-CON's 21st International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. B2Cloud specializes in IoT devices for preventive and predictive maintenance in any kind of equipment retrieving data like Energy consumption, working time, temperature, humidity, pressure, etc.
SYS-CON Events announced today that NetApp has been named “Bronze Sponsor” of SYS-CON's 21st International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. NetApp is the data authority for hybrid cloud. NetApp provides a full range of hybrid cloud data services that simplify management of applications and data across cloud and on-premises environments to accelerate digital transformation. Together with their partners, NetApp em...
SYS-CON Events announced today that Ryobi Systems will exhibit at the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) Pavilion at SYS-CON's 21st International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Ryobi Systems Co., Ltd., as an information service company, specialized in business support for local governments and medical industry. We are challenging to achive the precision farming with AI. For more information, visit http:...
SYS-CON Events announced today that mruby Forum will exhibit at the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) Pavilion at SYS-CON's 21st International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. mruby is the lightweight implementation of the Ruby language. We introduce mruby and the mruby IoT framework that enhances development productivity. For more information, visit http://forum.mruby.org/.
Smart cities have the potential to change our lives at so many levels for citizens: less pollution, reduced parking obstacles, better health, education and more energy savings. Real-time data streaming and the Internet of Things (IoT) possess the power to turn this vision into a reality. However, most organizations today are building their data infrastructure to focus solely on addressing immediate business needs vs. a platform capable of quickly adapting emerging technologies to address future ...
SYS-CON Events announced today that Mobile Create USA will exhibit at the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) Pavilion at SYS-CON's 21st International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Mobile Create USA Inc. is an MVNO-based business model that uses portable communication devices and cellular-based infrastructure in the development, sales, operation and mobile communications systems incorporating GPS capabi...
SYS-CON Events announced today that Enroute Lab will exhibit at the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) Pavilion at SYS-CON's 21st International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Enroute Lab is an industrial design, research and development company of unmanned robotic vehicle system. For more information, please visit http://elab.co.jp/.
Real IoT production deployments running at scale are collecting sensor data from hundreds / thousands / millions of devices. The goal is to take business-critical actions on the real-time data and find insights from stored datasets. In his session at @ThingsExpo, John Walicki, Watson IoT Developer Advocate at IBM Cloud, will provide a fast-paced developer journey that follows the IoT sensor data from generation, to edge gateway, to edge analytics, to encryption, to the IBM Bluemix cloud, to Wa...
SYS-CON Events announced today that Nihon Micron will exhibit at the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) Pavilion at SYS-CON's 21st International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Nihon Micron Co., Ltd. strives for technological innovation to establish high-density, high-precision processing technology for providing printed circuit board and metal mount RFID tags used for communication devices. For more inf...
SYS-CON Events announced today that Suzuki Inc. will exhibit at the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) Pavilion at SYS-CON's 21st International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Suzuki Inc. is a semiconductor-related business, including sales of consuming parts, parts repair, and maintenance for semiconductor manufacturing machines, etc. It is also a health care business providing experimental research for...
SYS-CON Events announced today that N3N will exhibit at SYS-CON's @ThingsExpo, which will take place on Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. N3N’s solutions increase the effectiveness of operations and control centers, increase the value of IoT investments, and facilitate real-time operational decision making. N3N enables operations teams with a four dimensional digital “big board” that consolidates real-time live video feeds alongside IoT sensor data a...
Mobile device usage has increased exponentially during the past several years, as consumers rely on handhelds for everything from news and weather to banking and purchases. What can we expect in the next few years? The way in which we interact with our devices will fundamentally change, as businesses leverage Artificial Intelligence. We already see this taking shape as businesses leverage AI for cost savings and customer responsiveness. This trend will continue, as AI is used for more sophistica...
SYS-CON Events announced today that Massive Networks, that helps your business operate seamlessly with fast, reliable, and secure internet and network solutions, has been named "Exhibitor" of SYS-CON's 21st International Cloud Expo ®, which will take place on Oct 31 - Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. As a premier telecommunications provider, Massive Networks is headquartered out of Louisville, Colorado. With years of experience under their belt, their team of...
In his session at @ThingsExpo, Greg Gorman is the Director, IoT Developer Ecosystem, Watson IoT, will provide a short tutorial on Node-RED, a Node.js-based programming tool for wiring together hardware devices, APIs and online services in new and interesting ways. It provides a browser-based editor that makes it easy to wire together flows using a wide range of nodes in the palette that can be deployed to its runtime in a single-click. There is a large library of contributed nodes that help so...
SYS-CON Events announced today that Daiya Industry will exhibit at the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) Pavilion at SYS-CON's 21st International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Daiya Industry specializes in orthotic support systems and assistive devices with pneumatic artificial muscles in order to contribute to an extended healthy life expectancy. For more information, please visit https://www.daiyak...
What is the best strategy for selecting the right offshore company for your business? In his session at 21st Cloud Expo, Alan Winters, U.S. Head of Business Development at MobiDev, will discuss the things to look for - positive and negative - in evaluating your options. He will also discuss how to maximize productivity with your offshore developers. Before you start your search, clearly understand your business needs and how that impacts software choices.